just an update on the turnout question.
In New Hampshire's Democratic primary, people 45 and older made up 63 percent of voters, according to the exit polls. People aged 18 to 29 made up just 14 percent.
that would mean that voters 30-44 made up 100-63-14=23%.
In New Hampshire's Democratic primary, people 45 and older made up 63 percent of voters, according to the exit polls. People aged 18 to 29 made up just 14 percent.
that would mean that voters 30-44 made up 100-63-14=23%.
recent data suggests that voting demographics in new hampshire are:
18-29 - 19.4%
30-44 - 21.3%
45+ - 59.3% (45-64 - 38.5%, 65+ - 20.8%)
so, my initial perception was correct - turnout amongst young people was lower than the models would have pegged it at, while turnout amongst older people was higher. that's the basic factor underlying the results, and explains the basic shape of the data, with sanders underperforming & buttigieg & klobuchar overperforming.
but, turnout overall was not low, so you need more than this observation to explain klobuchar's dramatic overshoot of the polling, and it's just not consistent with the data.
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/citizen_voting_age_population/cb16-tps18_nh.html
18-29 - 19.4%
30-44 - 21.3%
45+ - 59.3% (45-64 - 38.5%, 65+ - 20.8%)
so, my initial perception was correct - turnout amongst young people was lower than the models would have pegged it at, while turnout amongst older people was higher. that's the basic factor underlying the results, and explains the basic shape of the data, with sanders underperforming & buttigieg & klobuchar overperforming.
but, turnout overall was not low, so you need more than this observation to explain klobuchar's dramatic overshoot of the polling, and it's just not consistent with the data.
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/citizen_voting_age_population/cb16-tps18_nh.html