the reality is that there are likely millions of people already infected in europe. with 3,000 deaths in italy, and a fatality rate of 0.6%, a simple calculation suggests over 500,000 actual cases in italy alone.

there may be substantial levels of immunity building in northern italy right now, as well.

so, if they lock the country down right now and the numbers start coming down two weeks from now, do you jump to the conclusion that it was a lock down?

and, i'm going to leave you hanging with this for a few more sentences, because you had to know this was coming. i've been criticizing the scientific response by governments for a while now - basically calling them all a bunch of stupid thugs acting like goons in trying to strong-arm their way through this - and there's a few phrases that are inevitably going to end up in any such critique. really, it's sort of amazing that we haven't gotten here yet, although i foreshadowed it a little bit with the pissing in the flower bed analogy, and the suggestion that the efficacy of an overly broad measure doesn't justify the overly broad actions.

so, where are we going? say it out loud, kids. you know this one...

correlation does not imply causality!

you have to work that out. i'd be just as wrong to deduce it must be immunity. but, i have my views. and, what i've seen suggests that the studies being done right now are really leaning in my direction.

so, this might burn out in europe relatively soon.

but, don't deduce it's because of the nazi lockdown. it could very well be that the thing is actually out of control, and cases end up coming down due to immunity reaching an inflection point.