Tuesday, September 17, 2024

i don't like nate's models. they are less conservative than the models at his old site, but they are still too conservative.

these two sites are useful in that they collect polls and present links to them, not in their aggregators. i advise against using aggregate methods for election forecasting and suggest using snapshot polling instead.

nonetheless, what these methods (which are designed to measure and track corporate branding) are good for is capturing shifts in the electorate after they've already happened. you'll note consistency in minnesota, wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. i would suspect you'd see the same movement in washington, new york, ohio, illinois and oregon, but only oregon is maybe in play right now.

i think trump has a very good chance of winning minnesota.


you'll also note that the democrats are trending positively in georgia and nevada, which is predictable and probably correct.

i still think that harris will win michigan by mobilizing black voters in metro detroit and that she should be favoured in georgia and arizona as well. but the decrease in support from white voters in white states was predictable and is real and something the democrats are going to have to accept and deal with.