see, the mild green boost after the debate was predictable - but that it would come back relatively quickly was also predictable. and, that it will slowly bleed back (i wouldn't expect to measure it week over week) over the next several weeks is also predictable. mulcair still has lots of time to piss of his base, and he will. it's going to be a series of "last straw" moments had in sequence as, one by one, people burst veins in their head and fall out. it probably won't cost him the election. and it probably won't win the greens any seats. but, it will be realigning for the protest vote minority. protest voters are not swing voters; they don't come back. they vote with their hearts, not their heads. it's the price the party pays for moving to the centre. i don't think they'll hit 10. they might get close.

it's that liberal/conservative swing that you can tie to the scandals, and these are all conservative voters moving out. it's various degrees: the red tories seem almost fully swung, now, and it's traditional conservatives that are lending their vote out because they've just had enough. even while this is happening, the liberals are probably not done bleeding to the ndp - although what's left to go will likely be strategic. this might not be thought out well, because the liberals will become more competitive in certain ridings as upset conservatives vote liberal by default, and out of spite. the result of this kind of strange voting pattern (where liberals vote ndp strategically to beat the conservatives, while conservatives vote liberal or chp out of disgust) is not something i want to predict.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/28/ekos-poll-duffy-awakening-slumbering-electorate/