i want to update my understanding of the ongoing realignment mildly. i think that the broad, general idea is correct - and that what we're seeing in the election polls up to this point is broadly consistent with the conveyor belt i've described. it seems as though the ndp are going to take a large amount of voters away from the liberals, and that the liberals are very solidly solidfying the red tories as their own - and perhaps even eating into traditional urban conservative support, leaving the conservatives as an almost solely rural party. this is maybe a bit faster than i expected. the conservative--->liberal support is probably being exaggerated by disgust over the duffy scandal, but if the conservatives swing right on social issues under new leadership with a purely rural base then this could end up setting in permanently. it sounds like a dumb strategy, but the mps have to represent their voters. and, if it ends up that badly for them, they're going to see increased competition by entities like the christian heritage party. as soon as they lose power, all their moderating arguments collapse. there's going to be thousands of people that pumped thousands of dollars into the party, and didn't get a single thing out of it - and they're going to be upset about that.

however, it's becoming increasingly clear that the ndp want to leapfrog the liberals to the right. and, while the federal party has historically stayed to the left of the liberals, provincial ndp governments have often been to the right of their provincial liberal counterparts. added to this mix is the fact that thomas mulcair came out of a quebec liberal party that is the major right-wing party in that particular spectrum.

i maintain that we're realigning, and that these are the four ingredients that will stabilize in the new system. however, i think that it is becoming clear that the ndp will fulfil the role of the centre-right party in this new spectrum, while the liberals retain their place on the centre-left.

the election has only just begun. but, a clean sweep by the ndp would have the following ramifications between 2015 and 2019:

1) the ndp would lose it's left base to the greens, as i previously postulated.
2) a rump conservative caucus would place them in competition with openly social conservative parties, and force them to the right. such a rump caucus would be more concerned with it's own existence in the short-run than retaining power in the long-run.
3) a rump liberal caucus would be progressive by nature and force them to oppose the ndp on the left. this will allow them to regain some of the votes they have lost to the ndp as of the moment, and place the traditional red tories back between the ndp and the liberals. they will need a new name, of course.

so, the duffy thing may be acting as a catalyst of unknown strength. and, it seems as though the ndp and liberals are changing places on the spectrum. but, i otherwise hold to my theory - and think it's actually proving rather predictive.

that means my new prediction is as follows:

quasi-fascist ("conservative party"): 20%
*moderate conservative ("ndp"): 40%
left-leaning centrist party ("liberal party"): 25%
**left libertarian party ("green"): 10%
others: 5%

* the ndp's place on the spectrum will not be understood by most voters at the time of voting.

**the new left is not really going to be a social democratic left as it was in the past. we're moving out of the era of industrialized labour. a lot of the policies are similar, but the core principles are at times drastically different. it's something i overlooked previously for brevity.