it was disturbingly close, though. 53-47.

i think lisa is fighting a losing battle on this, in the long run. but. it's not sure in which direction it ends up in.

i don't think that maxime bernier is likely to attract much support in ontario or alberta, for the precise reason that he's not this kind of christian conservative. quebec is a different question, where the immigration issue is more cultural than ideological. alberta has a separatist movement, but it isn't about language or identity.

the abortion thing is a giant fundraising ticket for the conservatives. how long is their base going to continue to delude themselves into thinking this is the right vehicle for their goals?

if bernier ends up recreating a bloc-like force in quebec around immigration, it is going to be abortion that acts as the catalyst for a new reform movement. and, what we call the conservative party is going to have a perpetual struggle against an eventuality: either the christian (and increasingly muslim.) right of the party is going to leave, or the centre is going to cave in.

i was arguing that the centre was bound to cave in, as the liberals took over the center-right. but, the ndp have evaporated from the spectrum altogether. and, this is giving the tories a chance to hold the centre - but only at the expense of losing their right.

one way or another, it's the socred-conservative coalition that is unstable. and, we'll see in the end if the way it collapses is by the conservatives returning to their socred roots, or by the right striking out on their own.

and, abortion is the likely catalyst.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-great-thing-for-conservative-party-that-abortion-proposal-failed/