actually, i still think that warren's support is probably quite weak and prone to deep collapse.

the one strong group she seems to have picked up is wealthy, educated female identity voters. i'll acknowledge underestimating this, and that i should have seen it. and, that group might cling on to the end, a major asset given that it is so well distributed.

but, she has challenges with non-white voters. she has no real actual base, either. in the end, all of the groups are going to pick sanders. so, it's hard to see how she can build a coalition, without becoming the centre, ie. pushing biden out of his spot

that means that warren has to win black voters in the south, for instance. how?

what we're going to see soon enough is that her numbers are being exaggerated. i wouldn't be surprised to see her polling at 12% everywhere, while other candidates come up around her in different areas.

her prognosis to make it to iowa remains sketchy. she will need biden to pull out, i think. she will need harris to collapse. otherwise, she may poll third or second nationally without winning a state.

so, she's doing better than i predicted, and sounds like a serious candidate when she speaks. but, it's still not at all clear that she has any potential path at all.