i said i was going to post an update on my analysis of my own analysis, and i'm going to just use chilliwack as a case study.

the polls, almost all of which were online until the final days, were suggesting that the ndp was going to get upwards of 50% of the vote:

i missed the forum poll, which was the only really legitimate polling done, and turned out to be the only one that was actually right. funny that.

and, this is not unique - this happens in election after election, in canada. the online stuff is not polling, and it doesn't work. so, you don't want to average it out - you want to remove it and throw it in the trash. it just pollutes the sample.

but, based on the limited amount of evidence from actual polling that i could find, i deduced that:

1) the ndp vote was inflated by not counting undecideds. they will get more in the 40-45% range, and they did.

2) the liberal vote is underestimated because most of the undecideds are right-wing liberals, and most of them will come back - and most of them did. but, i pointed out that the phantom bc conservative party, which government and media doesn't want to acknowledge exists, is likely going to be the deciding factor in the election, because that's where the actual swing was - if right-wing liberals decided to vote for wilkinson in the end, the results could tighten up a lot. but, if they stay home or vote for the conservatives, those inflated results could stabilize.

3) the green vote may be underestimated if green voters decide at the last minute that the ndp is going to win for sure, anyways, so they'd might as well vote with their hearts.

i deduced that there wasn't enough data to determine if the ndp would get a minority or majority with confidence.

chilliwack

2017 results in chilliwack:

liberals - 48%

ndp - 32%

green - 17%

2013 results:

liberal 47%

ndp - 31%

conservative - 12%

green - 8%

so, we see that the results were actually fairly stable.

2020 result:

liberal - 29%

ndp - 38%

conservative - 18%

green - 10%

while the ndp are up a little - and this may be a reflection of the reduced sample size, given that older people haven't voted by mail yet - the dip in liberal support seems to be more connected to the boost in conservative support. and, this pattern plays out. the result is an ndp win in a very right-wing riding, and they'll need to be cognizant of that as they govern, if they do.

so, i seem to have nailed this.

and, we'll have to await final results to see if the ndp get a majority or not.