all of the models currently have georgia and arizona leaning republican. they should also have north carolina leaning republican but are dragging their feet in doing it. this doesn't factor in the difficulties that black people will have in actually voting in north carolina, either. it may be justified to have michigan leaning democrat, and michigan is the state that democrats have the best chance of winning because detroit is so black, but that is still a stretch. none of the other states should be leaning blue right now, and the data is bordering on colouring pennsylvania in as leaning red.

i want to be very clear what {ar, ga, nc} as republican means, even if you're generous and give nevada, new mexico, new hampshire and maine to the democrats. at 261 safe or almost safe ec votes, the republicans only have to win one more state - minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania or virginia - to win. there are also more complex combinations involving the forfeited states.

there is no question that trump is the clear favourite, beyond careful language and beyond ambiguity. it is very clear.

it should be pointed out that this is basically a reversal of the map from 2016 when trump had to win all three states, and did, and almost won minnesota, too. however, the trends are moving in the opposite direction, right now, and have been for quite a while.

what we're going to see in a few weeks is that the democrats need to completely rebuild their brand and marketing image. democrats need to understand this: they're not the cool kids. at all. they're losers. they're unpopular.

everything else aside, i think that the democrats' embrace of covid restrictions (and the republicans' campaigning against them) has flipped cultural perceptions about who is cool and who is lame to the opposite of what they were when i was a young person and happy happy joy joy is not sufficient to address that issue. because they refused to let anybody have any fun during the pandemic, the democrats may be seriously fucked for a long time. the liberals and ndp in canada may also have a similar problem, and they may try everything to fix it and fundamentally refuse to understand it.

the democrats probably need to completely rebrand to distance themselves from their conservative covid-era policies. 

right now this is starting to ankle bite and nip at your feet in the mid west. in the upcoming years, expect oregon and new york and massachusetts to become competitive, as actually really liberal people that were under 30 in 2020 move into their 40s and refuse to support the democrats. california may not need to sink into the ocean to become an island, in the end, if the fake left doesn't figure it out and foundationally adjust.