i can't tell you who to vote for.

as mentioned, it seems like the ndp and liberals have switched places almost everywhere, with the possible exception of a small number of areas in the 905. but, it's a small number of areas. you'll need to work that out on your own. they should do best in areas with a lot of educated workers; this is an election between demagogues on the left and right, with smart and informed people being disenfranchised - where these people cluster are the handful of seats the liberals will win. the university ridings. the high tech sectors.

i suspect there's a "shy wynne supporter" effect at play and that the liberals will do a little better than projected. but this is impossible to quantify, and impossible to predict the effects of.

you probably want to vote ndp. or, if you're in a likely safe ndp riding and you feel talked down to by andrea horwath and her fake accent, you might want to vote green out of protest.

if the vote coalesces, the ndp will win a big majority. if it doesn't, the media strategy will have been effective, and the tories will succeed in splitting the vote.

that said, 38% should not be enough for a tory majority in ontario. they need more like 42%, because their vote is inefficiently localized in rural ridings and they tend to be uncompetitive in cities. but, they always run at the bottom of their error bars, so they're probably running close to 34-35 anyways. what that means is that the pollsters need to tell you they're running closer to 45% to be seriously worried about a tory majority.

turnout is always a wildcard, but i do not expect a tory majority, even if the vote splits badly. in the scary scenario - i'm not going to say worst case - you're going to end up with a tory minority, and horwath is going to need liberal and maybe green mps to pass a budget.

but, i remain convinced that the ndp are running ahead of the tories province wide and especially in the gta, where it matters.

substituting the ndp for the liberals, the polls are almost identical to where they were four years ago. and, the predictions are almost identical, too. everybody predicted a tory majority...

...but, the liberals won a majority in the end.

it's the ndp's turn, this time, to confound the media's right-wing bias and cheerleading for the ontario tories and frustrate them with a clear majority.

...& part of me hopes they go after the bastards that accidentally elected them.