i'm going to say something else though, because i think this was a big factor last time.

polling companies categorize old people as 65+. then, they claim seniors are more likely to vote. and, i don't protest.

but, how many people on the phone are 65-80 and how many are 80+? and are people 80+ more likely to vote?

i suspect that what happened last time is that the polling firms talked to a lot of 90 year old conservatives, categorized them as seniors and then concluded that the conservatives had a big advantage - only to scratch their heads when it didn't materialize.

with life expectancies in their 80s nowadays, and data being collected over multiple generational divides and disparate living realities, pollsters need to split seniors into at least two categories, moving forwards.