so, he must have been assigned a task. but, this isn't how you approach this problem.

the numbers he's using (where he tries to determine where the support would come from) are empirically derived, but there's no reason to think they'd be reflective of what a green swing would actually look like. i mean, it's what people are saying now, or said in the past, not what people would say in six months. if a green swing actually happened, it would be a mass movement away from the ndp, which is what you saw in bc the other day - the ndp sank from first to third, and the green win was the consequence of a big swing across those two parties. you might see some ridings where the swing is from the liberals to the greens, too. but, this isn't an incremental, proportional thing - this is a conscious, dramatic, purposeful shift in voting intentions.

you would consequently want to look at ridings that have a long history of leaning generally to the left, not necessarily to the ndp but probably mostly, and not try to find the right proportional swing in the mass of random ridings. the ridings he pulled out are pretty ridiculous suggestions, which is reflective of him not doing this right.

but, you also need to factor in the local economy. guelph is an interesting example, because he won on a large split in an off election for the liberals. don't be surprised if mike schreiner is the first casualty of a liberal resurgence in ontario. he's actually kind of a weird counter-example in that he's a sort of an environmental conservative, and not reflective of the party's future in any way; for the greens to breakthrough, they're going to need to push people like schreiner out and away. there's no future in this besides vote splitting.

and, on that note, you need to look at the local economies in play, too. the ndp seats in southern ontario are probably pretty safe because the economy is so centered on the automotive industry. things may change down the road, but seats like windsor and hamilton are unlikely to swing.

it's rather the rural and kind of mixed "small city with a rural mentality" ndp seats, seats with majority white populations, seats with people that would love bernie sanders, that are likely to be most vulnerable to this kind of a swing. this would include not just large swaths of bc, but the entirety of eastern canada and a lot of northern ontario. the conservatives are trying to run against the carbon tax in these regions, but rural people are also both stewards of the environment and the people that are experiencing the effects of climate change the most. are you going to tell people suffering major flooding right now that climate change isn't happening, then expect them to vote for you? they don't care about profit margins for oil firms in calgary.

i don't like jody wilson-raybould; i think she's a conniving opportunist, and may would be foolish to recruit her, as she'd stab her in the back in no time. philpot, on the other hand,  may have been a victim of her own naivete, but she may have also badly miscalculated; i'm not sure either option reflects on her well. regardless, the greens would be wise to target indigenous voters in rural ontario and pretty much all of manitoba on a sustainability platform.

the other potentially up for grabs ridings would be ultra liberal urban ridings like ottawa centre, some of the ridings in the heart of montreal (including papineau) or some of the ridings in downtown toronto. it would be a strong message to have the greens unseat catherine mckenna, and i'd love to see them turf chrystia freeland. it would be the ultimate victory to unseat trudeau himself.

canada has a history of big swings, from the prairie populist movements in the west to the periodic regime changes that happen in quebec. they're hard to predict, too - and it can't be done using the methods grenier is pulling out, here.

you won't know it's happening until a week before it does. but, i think this is more of a 2023 thing. for now, they should be looking at carefully taking advantage of jagmeet singh's unpopularity in the ndp voting base.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-green-breakthrough-1.5128063