as expected, the ndp flatlined....

hey, i'm baffled they got this far. i'm not being cocky about this.

so, what does this mean?

it means that there's not yet compelling evidence that there was any real movement. it doesn't mean there wasn't any real movement (yet). it doesn't mean he's "plateaued". what he did was hit the top of the margin and bounce back, which you can't deduce is anything more than random fluctuations until or unless it breaks through the barricades.

as an aside: these are three day averages. so, if he went from 19.7 to 19.2 in the average, that means he was polling at 18 point something (max) last night.

it's a long weekend in canada, and the sample on saturday night (when he may have peaked) would be particularly sketchy.

we actually saw this last election, too, when the ndp peaked on one of the holiday weekends. i can't remember which one. if there's something to pull out here, it's maybe a tendency for ndp voters to be more available for surveys on long weekends, which kind of makes sense. you could call it the "lonely dipper" effect.

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-2019-10-13.pdf

the liberals are supposed to do better than this