i've been clear who i'm not voting for.

are the ndp splitting the vote, though?

i actually think the conservatives are running too low. at 30% nationally, and not much better in ontario, it's going to be hard for them to compete in most urban centres, even with the vote splitting. i actually think that's going to be a major outcome of this election - a lot of these ridings that the conservatives have been winning on the split since 2000 or so are going to just flat out swing liberal, and not because the liberals are up that much, but because the conservatives are down that much, with their vote...their vote is dying. that's why they're running at 25% in places they were running at 30% a few years ago - their voters are just dead, of old age, and aren't getting replaced, or at least not in those ridings. so, you might see everybody - including the greens and ppc - up a half a point or something. that's not what's happening. what's happening is the conservatives are dying off....

the conservatives need a way to connect with groups like south asians and muslims if they want to replenish their vote in these regions, and while harper and kenney were good at that, scheer doesn't seem like he can compete with trudeau on that point. i'm also still curious about what kind of south asian identity vote ends up backing singh. it could kill scheer in the 905, where the ndp are not usually competitive.

it's become a part of the discourse to vote liberal to prevent vote splitting, and it was a real problem back when the conservatives were running in the mid to high 30s, and competitive in toronto. when they're running in the low 30s (or maybe the high 20s, depending on turnout), and getting beaten badly in ontario, vote splitting is really a less pressing issue than it was.

of course, if the ndp comes out of nowhere in ontario at the last minute and pulls the liberals way down then this calculus implodes. but, at the moment, i wouldn't worry much about it - vote for who you want. i'm an advocate of that, anyways.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this