no. stop.

i think the numbers right now suggest an outcome more like this:

liberals - 210
conservatives - 75
bloc - 40
ndp - 10
greens - 5

yes, the conservatives sweep the west. yes, the bloc is back. but, this is driven by substantive gains by the liberals in ontario, at the expense of both of the other parties - and not even because the liberals are up, but because the other parties are down.

it gets spooky if the ndp start polling higher in ontario. that's when the numbers start flopping around.

i know the models are suggesting something entirely different, but they have a very poor track record, and that is the case because they're not very well constructed. i've deconstructed this before, you can sort through it if you insist.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this