Tuesday, August 13, 2024

i'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but i don't see an actual, measurable shift in the polling since biden resigned. there's a certain subset of the electorate that has more enthusiasm for harris, but you can only vote once, and it's not clear that this subset will vote at all, so it doesn't actually really matter if the media prefers harris over biden.

harris has received a bump amongst black voters but in most states that should be offset and actually exceeded by a decrease in enthusiasm amongst older white voters, who may now consider trump, when they didn't previously. it's a question of whether exciting more younger black voters to vote may be more effective than getting out the vote for older white voters, and that strikes me as a failed strategy. younger, blacker people vote far less frequently than older, whiter people, especially in states with barriers to voting. it's unclear how much of the excited demographic will be able to vote, even if they show up and try to.

the media got what it wanted and it's producing the narrative it wants to, but it isn't rooted in evidence and it may turn out to not reflect in the numbers on voting day, where trump's more traditional strategy simply works better and he consequently wins.

for these reasons, harris maybe puts michigan and georgia back on the table, if not convincingly, but she probably makes wisconsin and pennyslvania harder to win.

i don't see the evidence to support the idea that trump isn't going to win in a landslide.