Wednesday, July 23, 2025

this us trade deal with japan, if i understand, is designed to try to force japanese car makers (and other electronics manufacturers) to manufacture items for the american market in the united states, against market forces that would push production to mexico or canada. 

it's explicitly designed to force japan to make less cars in canada and more cars in the united states and it's doing so by increasing the cost of business across the board, and making it that much more expensive in canada. this is reshoring by manufactured inflation.

the result is that the price of japanese cars is going to substantively increase, and i can't imagine it will be substantively offset by the increase in wages associated with reshoring. that increase in wages will help a little, sure, but only for auto workers. everybody else is faced with a huge increase in inflation.

that said, the japanese are a special case. they have a history of spending huge amounts of money building factories in north america for the north american market. it's like they figured out that buying the factories that make the bombs makes more sense than bombing hawaii. it's almost colonialism, more than it is trade. the deal apparently specifically indicates that japan will spend half a trillion dollars building new factories and upgrading old ones in the united states. that will create jobs in the united states, and it will be good for the economy, overall. it's not "america first". it's foreign ownership of american production, and it may prove itself a national security threat in the long run, but it's a start in rebuilding american manufacturing, which everybody realizes still has incredible potential.

this might actually be a good deal for the united states, in the long run, even if it's a better deal for japan. it's also a direct attack on the canadian auto sector, who will be the massive loser, via collateral damage and negative externalities, even if it feels like it's on purpose. trump has clearly broadcast that canada and mexico are not invited to any special treatment, here. 

it's also not possible to apply the same ideas to other countries, with the potential exceptions of south korea and taiwan, who have similar relationships with united states tech manufacturing. this would not apply to china, to india, to any other country in the pacific rim, to anzac or to europe. the saudis might have gone down this path with their oil money, but they didn't; they just buy stock and flip it for profit. it's only these us-occupied asian countries that want to buy into american manufacturing on such a deep level, and that are pulling the old trick that the romans pulled on everybody for centuries, which is to colonize the imperialists from the inside out.

what i'm getting at is that i don't want to give trump too much credit. the japanese know what they're doing, and almost nobody else has the same kind of relationship with american capital.