i don't expect the liberals to support proportional representation; i expect them to push for preferential voting. i'd actually expect them to vote against pr. i also think it's more likely to win a referendum than pr, which i don't think canadians will ever support. the ndp would have to push it through against large scale opposition. the serious options on the table are av, or the status quo. we don't like fptp, but we like local representation [as a trade-off for taxation].

and, i wouldn't expect trudeau to budge much on his platform, either.

a lot of this depends on how fast mulcair goes. easiest answer is he loses his seat, and that's probably likely - it's outremont, and the liberals are way up in montreal. the cbc projections won't budge on it, but they seem to have some kind of clause built in for the party leader; most of the other models are calling for a liberal win in outremont. then, the ndp have to turtle and we get at least one budget in before there's any serious sabre-rattling.

even if he wins his seat, you have to expect he's going to face pressure to resign after losing close to half his caucus. is there a leadership review soon? it's clear that the base is unhappy. then, the ndp has an opportunity to step back from the brink, reconfigure itself and adopt some more characteristic positions.

and, if he somehow holds on and wants to play chicken? i'd expect trudeau to call his bluff and call another election. let's see the ndp try to argue their way out of that one...he'd be more likely to get a majority on it, while the conservatives are picking their own new leader.

it's true that the setup is to vote against the budget. that's what the balanced budget thing is about, it's a tactic to take down a conservative minority, but translates now into a tactic to take down a liberal minority. and, if it's a small minority then expect the government to come down before the first budget - mulcair can't vote for deficit spending, not after the fuss he made about it. he was supposed to get harper on it (expect a deficit next year, regardless of who wins). but, he painted himslf into the corner. however, it seems as though the liberals are like to get a pretty strong minority right now, and that gives them a strong upper hand and mulcair the door.

the large ticket items in the ndp platform are consequently almost certainly off the table. trudeau is going to be able to push through almost whatever he wants. the optimal ndp strategy for the immediate future is going to be to claim victory on a few of the shared points in their platform. they're actually going to want to avoid pushing any of their own signature policies, because they know the liberals will get credit for it.

so, it's...

weak minority - expect another election soon
strong minority - mulcair is done, and the liberals get at last one free budget through.

ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/william-watson-platforms-might-not-mean-much-without-a-majority