Monday, October 12, 2015

the best thing trudeau can do to win, right now, is keep his mouth shut and let harper continue to hang himself.

he needs to keep to the platform, repeat his talking points, avoid controversy and let the other guys take the risks. and don't fall for any obvious bait.

it's hard to see where he can get the seats for a majority. if current ontario numbers hold, he could get upsets in seats like newmarket, but it's still not enough. rural quebec is a waste of time. and, the liberals are in a distant third in the union ridings (hamilton, windsor); he gets a breakthrough there, it's just going to elect a conservative. northern ontario is a stretch for cultural reasons.

i'm skeptical about models that give them 4-5 seats in alberta. but, these are urban ridings and they have the same concerns as other urban ridings. cutting right into the heart of the beast is probably his best tactic, right now. if i were him, i'd be flying into alberta and staying there for several days. a hard sell, but the best fight he's got.

"the ndp can't win, vote liberal"

the conservatives are usually under 50% in most of the urban ridings. and albertans tend to vote in blocks. it's feasible.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/multimedia/strategy-time-what-the-liberals-need-to-do-to-win-1.3264658

Thetop1%
Most albertans seem to remember his dad. He will never win a seat in Alberta.

jessica murray
you know, it's interesting that you bring that up.

because i'm 34 years old. and my parents were not old enough to vote for trudeau, except in 1980. my octagenarian grandmother has memories of him, but that's about as close as i'm going to get.

let's do the math.

if you were 20 years old in 1968, you would be 67 years old today. you would need to be retired to have any concept of trudeaumania.

and, if you were 20 years old in 1984, you would be 51 today.

that means that anybody under 50 has no meaningful recollection of pierre trudeau.

now, if you want to debate the merits of the nep, we can do that, too. just so long as you don't tell me to freeze in the dark.