it took quite a few years and a change of premier, but the liberals in ontario have finally made the error that is the death knell of liberal governments everywhere: they geared policy around trying to appeal to conservatives.

the same thing happens every single time the liberals try this foolish tactic: the vote splits. this is partly a consequence of the conservative press taking advantage of them, like they're patsies, and partly a consequence of liberal strategists fundamentally misunderstanding conservative priorities.

what happened this time is that kathleen wynne decided that, because the debt was a liability with right-leaning voters, she would sell off the hydro grid. this would raise money to pay off the debt. that would in turn make her more popular with conservative voters and she'd win a sweeping victory.

but, it turns out that conservative voters actually oppose privatization measures and that the party always carried through with them without popular support. that's why the conservatives lost their dynasty - because while the media and the banks and the other branches of the conservative party establishment all supported privatization, it was incredibly unpopular amongst voters. if we rewind back to the day of old tory dynasty in ontario, that is before reagan-thatcher, they always supported public utilities. they built most of them! oops? yeah. this is an error that was foreseeable and should be pinned directly on the premier. this is a political error that she should not have made and that many pundits - myself included - saw coming.

but, is she cooked? is this done? not yet.

"Patrick Brown scores the highest of the party leaders at being Premier, with just one quarter of the vote (26%), and he is almost tied with “none of the above” (24%). Then comes Andrea Horwath, with a fifth of the vote (19%) and Kathleen Wynne with about one tenth (12%). One fifth don’t offer an opinion (19%)."

what the polling is saying is that voters hate privatization. they do not like it. they do not like it in a boat. they do not like it in a moat. they do not like privatization, no ma'am!

but they don't like conservatives, either.

there's been a huge swing from "liberal, i guess" to "they're all fucking terrible".

the election is very much in play. i think andrea horwath is a conservative-in-socialist's clothing. she won't stand up and argue against the market, she'll just promise tax rebates. but, watch out for the ndp. because, in the end, if we've decided that the liberals must be replaced, it's not going to be because we think they're spending too much.

my preferred outcome is that wynne gets the message, realizes her error and reverses course with enough time left to save the government. this wasn't ideological, it was pragmatic. and she should really be relieved to realize she was wrong.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2640/pcs-continue-to-lead-strongly-in-ontario/