what's my take on the issue in china?

my immediate analysis of the data was that there must be many more cases than were documented, and that if that were the case then it would be hard to believe that the situation was really under control. it seemed to me that the tactic they were following was to declare a kind of false victory, then blame any second wave on contact with the outside world, as they slowly released more accurate numbers. so, i realized and stated that the truth was probably that there were many, many undocumented cases, due to the high published mortality rate. i don't recall taking a position on whether there were also undocumented deaths.

the story about the urns is plausible on it's face, but it has a kind of familiar feel to it, and could be outright disinformation. i would like to see some independent reporting on this before i jump to believing it. but, note that my disbelief is not strong - i would just like to see the case made a little bit better. for now, some skepticism is really required.

what i do think is clear is that it will not be long before china begins releasing numbers documenting further spread in the country. whether those numbers should be taken at face value or interpreted as a creative narrative for their own domestic audience is going to be an empirical question, in the end.

at some point, they will need to make the numbers add up properly, even if they're creative in how they do it, in order to fit the politburo's nationalist messaging.

it's a constant: marxists think facts are pliable, that truth is meaningless, that maintaining actual knowledge in the public sphere is secondary to maintaining worker morale, in the face of whatever delusion or absurdity. it simply doesn't matter what is true.

but, expect the numbers to add up, eventually. somehow.