Monday, August 12, 2024

expelling hezbollah from lebanon, or at least pushing them into the mountains, would be a major victory for the lebanese people. 

lebanon is very different than anywhere else in the middle east and far more similar to israel than it is to any arab country. it's half christian and used to be far more than half christian. it has relatively liberal laws and a relatively liberal culture. it does not want to be ruled by islamic extremists.

the reason the syrian people, who are moderate muslims on paper but in truth largely secular leftists, have continually supported assad and the dictatorship that props him up is that he is protecting them from sharia law. this is also the reason he's such a pariah in the middle east. in fact, the laws in syria are substantively more liberal than they are in iraq, jordan, saudi arabia or virtually anywhere else in the middle east. as one random example, i happen to know that the syrian government actually funds transgender people to go through full transition, which is more liberal than some european countries and certainly more liberal than the united states. assad was actually trying to de-baathicize the country and hold elections, but the civil war made that impossible. the saudis of course hate democracy and that is why the saudis hate the syrian government and have gone to such great lengths to overthrow it. but, they can't because the overwhelming popular consensus is that, whatever the problems are with assad and the baathist regime, at least it's not a saudi puppet state that wants to run the country out of the back of a koran. 

in lebanon, the christian militias essentially lost the fight against islamic extremism and are being ruled by these hezbollah imperialists that want to colonize the region and convert them all to islam. they sit down and be quiet to avoid hezbollah's wrath. it's a brutal rule by dominance and control and fear.

i hope that the lebanese military walks into any vacuum opening up. lebanon is a failed state, but it doesn't need to be a hopelessly failed one. this is some glimmer of hope in a long hopeless scenario.