Wednesday, March 28, 2018

so, the kurds would be wise to retreat to safer areas, to let the turks run through. erdgan is a belligerent fool with a military force that cannot be effectively resisted. but, once the region is returned to assad, they will no doubt be allowed to return.

and, again: it defies reason to suggest that the turks have any interest in annexing this region, or in provoking a wider conflict with the kurds in the region.

the area on the other side of the euphrates is more complex, as it is not clear if or when the united states intends to leave. nobody wants the turks to get into a fight with the americans. but, the russians are going to agitate for the territorial integrity of the syrian state.

nor is the obvious solution of partition acceptable to the turks, because it would be a kurdish state.

it's consequently hard to see a way out of this: unless america acknowledges defeat and withdraws, turkey is on the path to direct conflict with the united states over a plot of land with virtually no strategic value to the empire at all.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/03/ypg-pushed-out-tal-rifaat.html