will cycle 25 be weak or strong?

we don't know the answer to this question, and suggestions that we do should be taken lightly.

but, people arguing that the next cycle should be the same as the last one, or weaker, due to a recent trend downwards are really making a particularly bad argument. given how poorly we understand how the sun works, we should be treating these cycles as independent. that means that it's really a coin flip, probabilistically, and trying to measure this using a regression analysis is fool-hardy.

and, given that perspective, it's actually the opposite argument that should be more compelling - because we've seen decreasing strength for a while, we're increasingly due for it to flip.

that doesn't mean that this particular cycle has a greater than 50% chance; these events are independent. this is a basic paradox that goes back to pascal. the correct answer is 50% every time, but it tends towards a mean...

so, i have to tell you it's 50/50.

but, my hunch is we're in for a ramp up, like we saw last in the late 90s. so, i have a confirmation bias towards this.

but, you'll get as many answers as you can find "experts"; we don't know, and while one guess may work out better than another in the end, that's all they are right now - guesses.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0QD9q-bHwcQVOH0dJOnGa6tw5lPYmPhtCy1u4JMFzEi3fUh4w0EGID6Yk