it's right on schedule, in my estimation - because i'm basing my analysis on the idea that canada is just a few months behind the united states in terms of the spread of the virus, and not on the idea that the various measures taken were more effective.

and, that's actually weakly testable. it's not a silver bullet, and not a clear deduction.

however.

bogoch is right when he says that if the lower numbers over the summer months were due to the actions of government then he wouldn't expect higher numbers until later in the year, which presents some reason to think maybe the lower numbers over the summer months were due to something else, like a smaller number of initial cases requiring more time to circulate.

and, what we're seeing is at least consistent with the the idea that my mathematical analysis was more useful than his analysis, as a doctor, was. which isn't and shouldn't be surprising - this is a math problem, not a medical diagnosis.

so, what do you do?

if you weren't able to stop it in the first place, there's little reason to think you'll be able to stop it, now. and, i'm going to be just viciously blunt: bringing in draconian measures, at this stage, will not stop the spread of the virus.

you need to understand your own risk factors, as an individual, and take the proper steps to protect yourself. that's what needs to be done.

the world won't save you.

and, the state sure won't...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-case-numbers-rising-legislature-returns-1.5720931