canadians have a longstanding hobson's choice. we don't like these guys. at all. we don't have a better option, either
the unseriousness of jagmeet singh as a major political candidate - the guy looks like some kind of barbaric clown that arrived in canada via a doctor who time warp from some time in the dark ages - has, in truth, kept trudeau floating for years. if the ndp could just find somebody electable to run for prime minister that looks like he belongs to this millennia, the liberals would already be out of power by now. but, when placed with a choice between the incompetent trudeau and this creepy looking weirdo terrorist guy singh, who is just not a serious candidate due to his appearance, canadians are left stuck. that's a big part of the reason you're seeing the conservatives running at over 40%, but it's not a serious vote projection, it's a reflection of frustration with the options.
what you might see is an election with extremely low turnout, and what liberals are going to struggle with is going to be trying to get people to vote at all.
there is, however, one thing that should be taken seriously, and it's what the bloc are polling at. ontarians are not likely to swing hard for either the conservatives or the ndp and if the outcome is in the end very bad it will be because we just don't vote at all. conversely, if quebeckers are threatening to swing hard to the bloc, they probably actually will, and that could completely wipe the liberals out.
if the bloc are really running over 10% nationwide, christy clark (who i think is a more serious candidate than chrystia freeland) might want to forget about running for liberal leader and instead consider crossing the floor to the conservative party.