again: i understand that it's warm in much of the rest of the...well, the world....right now, but the fact is that it is cold in eastern canada right now, and that includes detroit and chicago. further, we can argue about why the jet stream is the way it is right now, but it's clear enough that the reason we're experiencing what we're experiencing is that the jet stream is running unusually far to the south for this time of year, which is allowing colder arctic air to stream down to the lower latitudes. this arctic air is usually bottled up by this time of year, a process that has yet to happen this year. so, we can debate why this is happening [i claim that we're at the bottom of a solar cycle, and this is both predictable and quite 'normal'; you might argue for something else], but we know the mechanics of what's happening well enough - the jet stream is running lower than normal, this year.

the longest day of the year is june 21st. if this yearly process of bottling up doesn't happen soon, it might not happen at all - and this winter is going to be brutal as a result.

so, i will state this as clearly as i can: if you live north or east of detroit or chicago, do not be surprised if it doesn't really warm up at all this year, even while the city 50 miles south of you has another record warm year. there's a hard boundary asserting itself up the st lawerence right now, and the weather this year could be starkly, even frighteningly, different depending on what side of it you're on.

but, things can happen to shift the jet stream that are not related to the sun. remember: this isn't about measuring how much light the earth is being bathed within, so much as it's about magnets operating on the outside of the earth, which is tilted slightly away from the sun. so, the sun is only one input variable, and the actual shape of the jet stream will be determined by a complicated interaction of many, many variables, not only by one.

an active hurricane system could set the jet stream off, and at least give us some reprieve, although the solar condition right now would likely mean that this cold air would shift rather than retreat. so, if you get hurricanes in the right position in the ocean, you'll end up with the cold moving from toronto to calgary, and that would be better for everybody that matters.

that is probably the best we can do, this year.

but, i'm not predicting a deep minimum, i'm just pointing out the reality of a local one. the sun will be back soon.