...but this swing from the conservatives to the ndp continues to show up.
this is weird. the polling is suggesting a large swing from the conservative party to the socialist party - multiple firms are picking this up. unless a large amount of conservatives became socialists overnight, it's not ideologically driven - this bump, however real or not real it is, and it's still simply not clear, isn't being driven by policy.
so, i'll let you answer the question, is this:
1) random fluctuations driven by various types of sample bias, like the long weekend.
2) a bradley effect.
3) a rising south asian identity vote.
i'm going with a little bit of each.
but, i expect the final numbers to be lower.
regardless, the modelling is misinterpreting this. if we're seeing a big swing from the conservatives to the ndp amongst asian voters, that's going to happen in the 905 (and maybe in vancouver). and, it's going to help the liberals, not the ndp.
the liberals are supposed to do better than this