what are the eight seats that the ndp have in ontario, and how safe are they?

- three in windsor
- one in london
- two in hamilton
- two in the north (one of them is sort of sudbury, the other is an "unsettled" or largely indigenous area)

the federal ndp do not currently have any seats in ottawa or toronto.

in years past, hamilton was "safe" for the ndp. but, trudeau won seats here in 2015, and it's an overwhelmingly white union town. when the numbers were hovering around 10%, this was vulnerable. at 15-16%, they could maybe hold on - but if they dip any lower than that, don't be surprised if the liberals win these seats.

the london seat is vulnerable, as it's a three-way race. the sudbury seat is vulnerable, as the liberals do well here - it's more like rural quebec than rural ontario.

the ndp has, in recent decades, done very well in the northern areas - northern quebec, northern ontario, northern manitoba, northern saskatchewan and northern bc, too. the ndp will probably hold this. if anything is safe, it's this.

what's left is windsor, and the riding i'm in is not safe, because there's a very strong challenger. the riding to the south of here actually usually leans conservative. and the riding i used to be in is actually a bit more wealthy, and arguably more vulnerable than the one i'm in. it has voted liberal in the past...

again: if the numbers are trending up, these are the places they're trending in, and there's reason to think they'll hold them. but, if there's actually a bradley effect at play, and those numbers we saw last month were more accurate, there's not really any compelling evidence to think they can hold any of these seats, except that one in the far north.

they don't really have a base of voters in this province.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this