i can't imagine that's the case. nobody is going to save $40-50 on beer and popcorn.
a better estimate is probably in the 400-500 million dollar range.
given the massive headache and extra costs this is going to force businesses to incur, the rebate was probably the better approach. everybody - businesses, governments and individuals - could have better absorbed this by mailing everybody a $20 check instead.
not $200. $20. that's a better estimate.