it's starting to look like where i am is going to just duck under the jetstream most of the winter this year, and may actually see above average temperatures. there might be a lot of rain, but that's less annoying than periodic deep freezes.

the rest of eastern canada doesn't seem like it's going to be so lucky.

i think they may have slightly exaggerated the effect of the vortex, and slightly underexaggerated the effect of the el nino, which positioned the path of the jetstream about 100 km south of where it seems to be settling. which takes me from right on top of it to right underneath it, and makes the difference between a winter defined by north winds and a winter defined by moist rains.

as i mentioned before, i think this has to do with them not integrating solar effects into their models. it's a minor thing. but, being positioned where i am, it's a huge difference maker.

forecast temperatures this week are between 2 and 8. no snow on the ground. no snow in the forecast. they're claiming it will get cold in two weeks, but they've been saying that for a few weeks and keep bumping it up. it seems like they misforecasted...

i mean, it could still switch. and it will no doubt get cold once or twice. but i think i'm in a sweet little spot this year...

the bad news is that, if i'm right, the fact that we're at the peak of a very weak solar cycle means winter could get pretty nasty for a few years after this year...

this is a good graph, because it balances the things out at the end.

(the blue is "global warming", the yellow is the sun, the red is the temperature, which is flatlining as the blue and yellow move in opposite directions.)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Temp-sunspot-co2.svg

but where we are, what's more important is how the sun affects the factors that affect the jetstream. there seems to be research that suggests that these dips in the jetstream are correlated with solar activity, which is something very localized (temperature wise) to eastern north america - and tends to create warmer temperatures in the western part of the continent. so, you're not looking at a decrease in global temperature caused by the sun's decrease in power so much as you're looking at the global spread of energy modified in a way that makes us, specifically, colder - and other places warmer.

so, what that means is that even if carbon dioxide keeps skyrocketing, if the sun doesn't come back hard we could very well be stuck with all kinds of wind blowing south from the arctic making us very cold - while africa and india fry.