well, i took a look at the list of ridings, and it's all presented nicely in tabular form. it's a list of 51 ridings. but, they are further broken up into three categories, and the number that they estimate that they can seriously influence is much less than that.

it's hard to argue directly, based on the numbers provided. but a little caution is required.

for example, you could look at a riding that was won last election by 79 votes. could higher aboriginal turnout have affected the outcome? sure.

but, and i by no means wish to trivialize, the margin of 79 votes is small enough that mobilizing virtually any demographic could have been enough to swing it. the same logic holds whether the margin was 79 or 790 or 1790. and, then it gets a little too big

i stand by my initial points: the aboriginal population in canada is quite small, and scattered across the country in such a way that it would be unable to make a difference much of anywhere; there are a handful of exceptions in some remote regions. population growth is also higher in the prairies, but it's still not really at swing-level numbers.

but, sure. in theory. if a specific party that starts with a c won by a small margin in 2011, they could certainly wipe that small margin out, if they vote as a bloc with that purpose in mind - presuming all other things stay equal.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-assembly-first-nations-bellegarde-1.3212551