sanders has to do something that has not been done in a long time - he has to ride white liberal support to beat black conservative support. that's different than in 2008, where the difference was less ideological.
i think that sanders could conceivably win big in both california and new york. i haven't seen polls for either. but, massachusetts is a better comparison than south carolina - and some polls have him beating clinton in massachusetts by over 70 points.
that's right. over 70 points.
it's not really black v. white. it's more north v. south - which means liberal v. conservative. red v. blue. and, it's a big deal.
iowa and nevada are purple states, and they split the delegates. new hampshire is a blue state, and sanders won huge. south carolina is a red state, and clinton won huge. that is the dynamic that you are likely to see repeated: clinton is going to win red states, and sanders is going to win blue states.
and, both by substantial margins - because that is the real split that is developing. it's not identity. it's ideology.
(although i still think sanders would be doing a lot better if he was a christian and appealed more to the christian/conservative base of southern black democrat voters)
see here's the thing: if clinton wins then it means that liberals will be void of a candidate. and, it opens up a space for a third party run.
i'm not joking. if this pattern holds and sanders wins all of the blue states by 50% and clinton wins all of the red states by 50%?
well, what other conclusion is there, then, that the blue states need to back a new party?
it's not a new thing, either. maybe they need to modernize the delegate structure so that it gives less power to red/conservative/southern states [who used to be democrat locks, remember]. but, northern liberals have been getting reamed by this party for decades. they want universal health care. they want to tone down the military-industrial complex. they want lower tuition. they're liberals. and, they're unable to get anything through, because they're held up at gun point by a delegate system that wants to define the race by who wins in south carolina.
bernie has a hill to climb. clearly. but, i am certain that the clinton campaign is going to be dramatically disappointed by numbers from california and new york. the question is whether it's enough that he can catch her or not.
the odds are against him, maybe. the conventional wisdom, sure. but, the numbers from blue states are consistent: sanders is their overwhelming choice.
this is far from over.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/south-carolina-primary-results-2016-democrat-clinton-sanders/