my vlogs are staggered by a week, but this topic will present itself in time.
bernie is likely to come out of "super tuesday" down pretty far in the delegate count, even if he wins by 70 points in new england (and i think he just might). i continue to think that he has a fighting chance to come back based on a strong showing in california, by presenting himself as the liberal counterweight to hillary's rather blatant conservatism. california is a reliably liberal state. combined with new york, it has a huge number of delegates (546 + 291 = 837). this is bernie's actual path to victory: he has to sweep liberals. it doesn't matter what colour they are, or who they have sex with or what gender they are. and, in fact, getting that point across is really fundamental. so, he's doing this right. it's just that it's not an easy thing to do. and, i'm a realist. it's not over. but, it's clear who is winning. bernie ought to sweep liberals. but, he ought to have won the civil rights vote, too (and, maybe he did - maybe the take away lies in a really strong reevaluation of what drives black voters in 2016).
likewise, the republican primary is pretty much over. cruz will drop out if he doesn't win texas. rubio will drop out if cruz does win texas - because he's not going to win anything. it's pretty clear that trump will win every state on tuesday, with the possible exception of texas. but, neither cruz nor rubio benefit from the other dropping nearly as much as some might think (cruz would pick up a bit more from rubio than rubio would from cruz), and the numbers just don't get there. neither has a serious chance, and that will be made obvious on tuesday. but, kasich is still standing. and, he consequently has a real chance of cleaning up when the blue states hit the schedule. but, this is again an abstraction - the reality is that trump probably coasts.
then, what's left - trump v. clinton.
i couldn't care less. they're both catastrophes. as i've stated a few times here, i honestly don't think that trump makes it past the inauguration alive. so, we're stuck with (probably) eight more years of imperialism and austerity.
so, i'm not going to get between a trump-clinton election.
americans may not realize how important the american election cycle is to canadians. but, it is very important.
as one example, consider health care. the biggest problem facing our health care system is it's geographic proximity to the united states. just about the best thing that could happen to canadian health care is the adoption of a single-payer system in the united states. that would eliminate a massive, corrupt market from being less than 100 miles from almost all of the population. i have selfish reasons for supporting sanders, on this point.
another is inflation. our dollar tends to move with the american dollar. yes, it's tied to oil. but, it's also almost always moving in the same direction as the usd. so, when our dollar goes up relative to the usd, that usually means it's climbing faster. and, when our dollar falls relative to the usd, that usually means it's falling faster. there's also the question of the cost of food. because we import a lot of our food from the united states, inflationary pressures in the united states can have a huge effect on us. s, consider trump's wall, for example. that's going to dramatically increase the price of strawberries. i'm already pissed that they're too expensive!
another issue is foreign policy. we're tied together through nato, and we like to be good neighbours. so, we want to contribute the way we can. but, canadians are not a warring people - we want peace. so, it's in our interests to support candidates that want to reduce the number of wars that nato is involved in.
that's just three obvious issues. there's many more. there's nafta, and the tpp. there's climate change. there's border security.
i mean, listen: america is the empire. everybody is affected by what they do. but, we are in much greater proximity. a famous leader of ours said that it was like sleeping with an elephant - no matter how friendly relations may be, every twitch is dramatically felt. and, this is very much true.
so, i mean...you'd have a lot of nerve to tell people not to interfere. as though america never interferes in events outside it's borders, right? get fucking real. but, canada is far too invested to not interfere, and america will just have to deal with that. get used to it - we're not going away, and we want a say and we will not be quiet.
but, i can't pick a side if the election is trump v clinton. they're both too awful. i could loudly argue for sanders. and, i could loudly argue against both trump and clinton. but, i'm not seeing a reason to root for one or the other.
i think clinton would be better domestically - if barely. however, i actually think that trump would be less inclined towards interventionist conflict - he strikes me as more of an isolationist. i'd prefer trump's foreign policy.
i could maybe get involved with a third candidate. or, if sanders manages to get ahead in the ways i'm suggesting...
but, i think my interest in this cycle has closed. i just don't see much that's going to excite me.
although i'll close off with one more observation: i think i'm probably pretty reflective of a general opinion. if hillary wins and barely carries any blue states, and trump wins with weak support from conservatives, you could see record low turnout.
45% turnout?