no. they're missing the point.

california will not decide anything - it's too big, and too diverse. the rich, white people will vote one way, and the less wealthy latino population will vote another; the hippies will vote one way, and the tech industry will vote another; the atheists will vote one way while the religious cults vote another; etc, etc, etc.

the only way that anybody is going to sweep californiia is if they've already united the factions in the party, that is, if they've already won. it is otherwise necessarily going to split. that was the big takeaway i learned from studying this in 2016.

statements like "what california wants" are meaningless - california is too diverse to have a singular, unified opinion. what "california wants" is going to be roughly the same thing as what national polls want.

pushing the state up in the primaries consequently leaves the candidates with a frustrating problem. they can't afford to get blown out in california, and it is at least true that the smaller candidates will likely find themselves mathematically eliminated after super tuesday after they watch all those delegates slip away. but, none of them have any possibility of improving their position by doing well in the state, either, due to the diversity of the demographics. california won't help them win, but they will all need to spend lavishly to avoid losing as a consequence of doing poorly in it.

so, it doesn't really matter if california is first or last, the fact that it's certain to split in any kind of competitive race due to it's size and diversity means that it's not going to change the game. however, it is going to bankrupt basically everybody just in an attempt to keep up.

they should resign themselves to the reality of their diversity and move the primary to july.

but, do demographic trends suggest a more unitary voice for california is likely in the future? if the latino population takes over the state, it could become a force to be reckoned with, that much is true. yet, they're competing with a lot of asian immigration that is actually ideologically pretty different than it. and, california isn't likely to cease being a general magnet for all kinds of different groups.

i somehow doubt that california actually wants to become this homogeneous voice of latin-speaking political uniformity. but, short of becoming that, it's not going to exert much of a decisive influence, regardless of where you put it. it's just not possible to build the kind of coalition you need, unless you've already won, anyways.

californians need to kind of wake up to this and stop pretending otherwise.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/24/politics/california-primary-influence-2020-democrats/index.html