the liberals think they'll win a majority if they call an election in the middle of a pandemic, probably because the ndp are doing well in bc. they let the ndp make the gamble, and now they're trying to follow along - like they always do.
i was noncommittal about bc as the dynamics were unclear ("stability" in a pandemic v punishing the government for an unnecessary election), and it's still not clear what the outcome there is going to be, although what's become clear is that the leader of the liberal party (which is unusually right-wing in bc) is relatively unpopular. the thing is that the nature of the three party split in bc means that opinion polls are less decisive than they appear at first glance. if vancouver has swung hard to the ndp, and that is the reason the polls are skewed, it won't help them in the interior, which is unlikely to vote for the ndp. and, if those 4-5% differences in total green support are reflective of weakening support in ridings they had no chance in anyways, it will likely matter little in the handful of ridings they're competitive in.
i'll post some kind of analysis near the end of the week.
if it's not clear, i would recommend supporting the greens, even as i'm uneasy about their increasingly goofy positions on certain social issues. i'll openly and loudly criticize them for that, but race and gender politics shouldn't be ballot questions and i refuse to bend on that point; i'll nail them for being specious, and then endorse them and vote for them anyways. and, i don't care if they want my endorsement or not. it is in the best interests of the planet that they maintain the balance of power in that province, somehow.
i think the issue is less up in the air regarding a federal election - the numbers for the liberals just aren't there. they're maxed out in ontario & quebec and likely to lose seats in the east. i don't see any reason to think the pandemic is going to lead to stronger levels of support for the liberals west of winnipeg, or in rural ontario. if they saw a bump, it was likely in the gta, but it doesn't matter if they win these seats with 51% or 91% of the vote.
regardless, mr. singh is being badly outmanoeuvred, as always. and, if there's a party with the most to lose from an election, it is indeed the ndp - who, as much as i am unhappy with them, need to continue to act as a check on the increasingly corrupt liberals. i mean, you expect a little corruption, but they just don't care any more.
if they abstain, we have an election. so, this is what they should do...
if the government insists this is a confidence matter, vote with the government. then reintroduce the motion on the next opposition day. if the government again insists it's a confidence matter, vote with the government again. then, reintroduce it on the next opposition day. continue forward with this until the government either gives up, or drops the bullshit and calls an election, anyways.
when asked about it, the ndp should just be upfront: this is bullshit. if the liberals want an election, they should just call it.
there's nothing stopping the opposition from reintroducing the motion over and over again.