Sunday, June 23, 2024

the alberta ndp party is very small. according to the cbc article, it had 16,000 members a few months ago; that made it very easy for naheed nenshi to crash the party and buy his way into power. he received over 60,000 votes, which was a commanding win of 86%. 

yet, 63000/x = 0.86  <----> x = 63000/.86 = 73000. 
73000-63000 = 10000.
16000 - 10000 = 6000.
6000/16000 = 0.37.

 that also suggests he only got around 35-40% of historical ndp voters, and he brought the rest in.

then, is nenshi a viable candidate? yes, he is. but, he's a conservative.

this is essentially the same thing that jagmeet singh did and i would expect more or less the same outcome. on some level, nenshi may be viable, but traditional ndp voters are going to like him less than anybody else in the province and leftists don't have a lot of brand loyalty to parties that abandon their mandates. nenshi will appeal more to alienated progressive conservative voters than to ndp voters, but the trick is that there's 3x as many pc voters in alberta than ndp voters so that might actually work.

i would expect nenshi to destroy the party in the long run, even if he manages to win a term or two. you're not going to recognize the party when nenshi is done with it.