the liberals are currently on track to win 60-70 seats in ontario. that's a 30-40 seat loss for the conservatives, and a 50-60 seat net gain. what's left are union strongholds (like hamilton) and conservative strongholds in the rural provinces.

it is true that the road to power is through ontario, but there's also only so far that the liberals can go in increasing their seat count.

if the liberals want a majority, they need to win seats in calgary and edmonton on top of their 60 seat gain in ontario, which at this point seems solely dependent upon turnout.

i would advise liberal strategists to ignore the advice of their enemies. campaigning in hamilton will at best accomplish nothing and at worst elect a conservative on the split. get to calgary, asap.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/federal-election-leaders-must-win-ontario-1.3267647

*rural parts of the province.

can you just allowing editing, already? yeesh. it's 2015.

Wisewoman
Jessica, in case you hadn't noticed, except for the GTA and a few big centres like London & Windsor, Ontario IS rural, and the Conservatives will win most those ridings.

jessica murray
well, i think you've got the balance wrong in terms of number of seats, though. if you look at a map, it's broadly rural. but if you look at where the seats cluster, it's in urban areas.

if the liberals are really running over 40, as the aggregates are suggesting, then you can expect them to get around 70 seats - and those 70 seats are mostly in toronto and ottawa.

but, my point was that once you get past that, they have almost no chance of further gains. and, that doesn't add up to a majority.

they can't win without toronto & ottawa (& montreal & vancouver). but, they need to find a secondary strategy, and the best chance right now is calgary & edmonton.