this makes sense: there's a fight between the warm air moving up and the cold air moving down and the forecast is that the warm air will mostly win that fight. i concur. but, i just want to add that you have to work in a concept of uncertainty. this el nino has also been unpredictable. this time last year, it wasn't even clear that we were going to have an el nino at all. if various factors lead to a faster collapse. or a longer lingering, this will effect how much warm air is able to move it's way up. there's also uncertainty related to how powerful that north wind may end up. canadians know to never underestimate that north wind.

while i think the idea is correct, i would suggest that you should not be surprised if we get a nasty cold snap or two before february. i would also not be surprised if the el nino stays longer than expected (as this has been the pattern with this el nino up to now - it has consistently exceeded forecasts). the cold snaps may be short, and may ultimately be overpowered by the warm air. but, there's reasons to expect them that go beyond the obvious "well, it's winter".

it's actually a situation, i think, where "a few degrees above normal" is misleading. fifteen days of temperatures that are 6 degrees above normal followed by five days of temperatures that are 10 degrees below normal (maybe dipping over the first day and rising over the last) balances out to "a few degrees above normal". but, it doesn't feel that way. and you won't remember it that way.

www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/winter-hasnt-been-cancelled-but-will-be-milder-for-most/60506?intcmp=twn_promo_news1