mild correction: it seems like what i was imagining already happened.

my hypothetical riding ceased to exist a cycle or two ago. the ndp have already won all of those ridings, and the liberals are already polling third in a lot of places.

that means that a tory swing of this nature may have the potential of being absolutely trivial. or, it could let horwath come up the middle in certain places.

my riding should be being targetted by ford. it has a large conservative muslim minority that has succeeded in electing a right-wing lebanese mayor, amongst other things. the conservatives are running a right-wing muslim in the riding that is no doubt opposed to teaching sex ed. so, this is the kind of audience that ford's message is designed for.


the riding was held by liberals for years, until the ndp finally broke through; these were the results of the last election:

ndp - 41
liberals - 38
conservatives - 14

given that the ndp are holding steady, or even up, the conservatives would need an almost total collapse in liberal support to win this riding. they'd need more than ten points just to come in second.

but, there is some reason to think that they may, in fact, be running more than ten points up.

if the result of the election is this:

ndp - 39
conservatives - 35
liberals - 19

...then that ends up as a big boost in conservative support, on paper. but, the ndp hold the riding.

london north is another example where the liberals have already ceded ground over the last few cycles, but they still hold the seat. this is the result of the last election:

liberals - 36
ndp - 30
conservatives - 27

if the liberals lose ten points here, and 6 of it goes to ford, you end up with:

ndp - 34
conservatives - 33
liberals - 26

and, that is one of ford's better chances for a pick-up. even the numbers in brampton and etobicoke and mississauga, ford nation, are pretty daunting, for the conservatives - they need 15-20% swings, and are often in third place.

i had my numbers out of date. but, the idea stands: if you go through and look at the ridings one-by-one, it becomes clear that if this swing is localized amongst urban immigrants (ford's base.) *and* ndp support holds then the number of ridings where conservatives can win seats by attracting liberal voters is actually quite low.

so, even if the popular vote does shoot up, it might not lead to much of a substantive difference.

ford needs to hold that old tory demographic, and swing seats in the liberal fortress, if he wants to actually win. those are the seats the conservatives might actually flip. and, all evidence i've seen suggests that he's not doing well in this demographic of rich white liberals - or that he ever has done well with them.