back in the 90s, the liberals were running a little higher in ontario - around 50% - and the ndp were running a little lower, around 10% (or lower). but, that's not why the liberals virtually swept ontario in three successive elections - 1993, 1997 and 2000. rather, the reason that the liberals swept ontario is that the reform party and "progressive conservative" party split the vote on the right in rural areas, allowing them to come up the middle.

these were the 2000 numbers:

liberals: 51.5%, 100 seats.
reform: 23.6%, 2 seats.
pcs: 14.4%, 0 seats.
ndp: 8.3%, 1 seat.

the ndp appear to be running a little higher, which you can take away from the liberals. this should get the ndp a small number of union seats if they actually run at 15% - but may not even be good for that if they dip much lower.

but, current green numbers are not that different than those pc numbers, and current conservative numbers are not that different than those reform numbers.

so, you can see what might happen.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this