the national numbers continue to flatline. but, nik posted some ontario numbers. thanks, nik.

there are large margins here. and it's one poll. so, be careful. but....

if that is close to being right, what does it say?

liberals: -3.4%
cons: -6.6
greens: +8.2

the ndp are +0.8 which is statistically flat, but i also suspect a bradley effect. i'm not taking their numbers seriously, right now. in the end, i expect they'll be down a few points.

you can look at the file yourself, but i pulled this out for a reason. at 44.8% last election, the liberals won 80 seats in ontario. if the ndp are flat (or down) and the conservatives are way down, they're not just going to keep almost all of those 80 seats, but they're going to pick up an extra dozen urban seats from the conservatives and ndp.

even better for them, that huge boost in green support is actually rural. that's right - the greens are way up in conservative ridings. and the conservatives are way down. that means the greens could actually be handing seats to the liberals on the split.

again, the margins are huge, and i'm operating in them. so, if we end up with the following, in the end:

liberals: 45%
conservatives: 26%
ndp: 15%
greens: 12%
ppc: 2%

....the liberals are going to win 110+ seats in ontario. like, 115, even

and, that's why i think they're on track for a majority.

we'll see what happens.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this