i was one of the few people that predicted a sanders upset in michigan in 2016. i derived it by looking carefully at the polling, concluding there was about a ten point bias baked into it and working it out to sanders' favour.

but, the polls had clinton around 55, and sanders around 45. and, his win was not massive - it was a close outcome. sanders technically won, but they split.

the recent polling has sanders lagging well behind and biden jumping up way ahead. even if you work in that bias, which i cannot establish as this is the first two-person race, but even if you assume it's still there, a correction ends in a loss.

it may be a little closer than some of the polls are suggesting. but, it does look like biden is going to carry the state.

what i'm curious about is what some of the margins are. what is the margin with blacks, for example? in 2016, clinton did win blacks in michigan, but it was also the last northern state she blew him out with them. bernie got a big bounce with northern blacks from his michigan win; illinois and missouri were the next week, and were a toss-up. he tended to poll well with blacks in michigan, after that. despite the narrative, biden has actually underperformed with blacks this primary. does that continue? if so, i don't think this ends up too lopsided, but we'll see.

but, if he loses rural whites, which he probably will, what is the damage? is this going to be a 20 point swing from 2016? 25? 30? that's the number to keep an eye on....

i don't really care about the other states; i expect this to be over when we get michigan results.