even at this stage in the pandemic, i wouldn't put higher odds than a coin toss on either side getting the concept right. is social distancing actually working, or is it just widespread immunity? we don't know; flip a coin.

i'll make my arguments as forcefully and convincingly as i can.

but, in the kind of data desert that we have with this, it's a coin toss. really.

governments have a prerogative to lean staunchly towards conservative policies, and that is what the response is reflective of, not any deep reverence to science. you have to remember that the government is ultimately driven by actuaries; they're taking the path that has the least amount of risk, and will do the least amount of harm - and has what they believe is the lowest projected cost. i think they're wrong on the second and third points, but it's the first point that is really the policy driver. our governments are deeply risk adverse, that is they're deeply conservative, when stripped to their core functions.