if the numbers in new york crash over the next week (and, again - easter is a complicating factor. but, we're starting to get enough data in to understand the fluctuations as more than random.), what we're going to have in front of us is a steep incline, followed by a bumpy and short plateau, and then a steep decrease.

from a data analytical perspective, this is the most confusing outcome possible, because we're left with the problem of trying to reconstruct a peak that might or might not be there.

factors to consider include:

- delayed reporting (so, somebody dying on a monday but not being reported until the wednesday, for example)
- the effects of ventilator systems on essentially postponing death by a few days
- just flat out unreported deaths

and, i would need actual, real data in order to do actual, meaningful work in order to get a real handle on that - that's too subtle to eyeball from some bar graphs.