Monday, July 8, 2024

the elections in iran are not free or fair, but the death of the previous hardliner president and his replacement by a less insane person are suggestive that the regime realizes that it's recent fascist crackdown on it's own people is not sustainable, and it is going to need to cave a little bit if it wants to maintain power.

it might not result in substantive policy changes in the short run, but that is a major change in the regime's direction, especially given the age of the dictator in charge, whose days are numbered.

is this the result of western pressure? i doubt it.

rather, i would suspect that the russians, who are iran's primary partner in the world, convinced the iranian leadership that it can't dominate and control forever, and it needs to find a way to allow for liberalization, in order to prevent collapse.

it's a better outcome than the alternative, but i would avoid getting excited.