the conservatives won a large number of seats in toronto in the 2008 federal election by using media to run the leader of the party, stephane dion, into the ground.

very few toronto liberals voted for the conservatives or ndp, but enough avoided voting altogether that it got harper a lot closer to a majority.

if main street is right, and turnout is down by as much as 40%, that might be the right model to look at. and, if it is, and the depressed turnout is overwhelmingly liberal in past voting intentions, it might be the case that the second-place parties end up winning seats by default - because liberals have completely tuned out.

the liberals have a strong base in toronto. it might be easier and more likely to suppress than swing.

but, they also have a strong ground game and this has been underestimated before.

as i've pointed out a few times: if toronto holds liberal, we could see provincial numbers swing all over the place, and very few seats actually change hands. the vote is strongly concentrated; if they get wiped out outside toronto, and yet hold it, they could end up third in the popular vote, and still win the most seats. you'd need them running in the high 20s, minimum, though. but, if liberals don't vote, in the end, it's hard to imagine any outcome besides a tory win.

people hate this woman. i get it. but, if she has the best ground game in the most populous region, it doesn't matter.

the tories don't have a large enough swing to compete where they haven't already won. and, the ndp need a 10+% swing to be serious, not a 5% one.

we'll see what the numbers say tomorrow. but i'm still holding to a likely pc minority.