again: the conservatives, under stephen harper, managed 45% of the vote in ontario in 2011. that was enough for a majority of seats in ontario.

in 2008, however, which is a better comparison over all, the conservatives got 39% of the vote in ontario - which was only enough for a minority of seats in the province.

the data suggests that doug ford will be lucky to match the 2008 totals - and that he is not even close to the 2011 totals.

historically, bill davis also needed 44%+ to run a majority. davis ran at 36 once and at 39 once and ended up with minorities both times. mike harris ran at 45% for both of his majorities.

it is entirely unclear where the narrative of "conservative vote efficiencies" came from, if not from the ford campaign itself. that sounds like the kind of vacuous bluster that would come out of his mouth, not a reasoned deduction from seasoned pollsters who should be well aware that the conservatives need exaggerated numbers province wide to allow for boosts in urban areas.sufficient enough for them to win elections. they've always had the least efficient vote.

the conservatives are up at most 8 points and they lost dozens of urban ridings by way more than 15 last time. if i'm right and they're up more like 3 or 4 points, they're not likely to improve much on their existing seat total at all - especially considering that the liberals are bleeding so heavily to the ndp.

but, even seasoned liberal propagandists are repeating this pablum.

it shows the power of the tory media to control the narrative.