so, this isn't about "voter efficiency" - i was wrong about turnout, and the point they were making about distribution ought to have been irrelevant or wrong due to the swing. when i pointed out that the pcs can't win a majority of seats with 39% of the vote, i was right to do it - assuming that liberals vote one way or the other. if liberals vote conservative, they get over 39%; if they vote ndp or liberal, that's just not enough to win. then they just didn't vote at all. & when the talking heads argued that the ndp vote was poorly distributed, they should have been misinterpreting the evidence - but happened to fluke out because liberals didn't vote at all. i mean, what happened wasn't about the ndp's vote distribution, it was about the evaporation of liberal voters altogether. if the argument was that the conservatives can win via vote suppression, i would have agreed with the point, even if i guffawed at the numbers required to do so.

and is this believable?

i have no evidence regarding voter suppression, but would encourage others to explore the situation.