this is a good example of what not to listen to today.

"but, the ndp would have to swing 40% of the vote in that riding to win! the liberals are the obvious strategic choice."

i was skeptical until i saw the data, too, but the ndp are swinging 40% of the vote.

or, at least they are in some places.

this is a hard problem; i can't solve it without a lot of data, and i don't have a lot of data. but, don't follow the kind of simplistic analysis presented here. it's just as bad as the projections coming from lispop.

the hard truth is that some of these ridings will swing 45% from liberal to ndp and some of them won't swing at all and it's up to you to guess which is which. good luck. the province depends on it.

don't look at me like that, blame the media for creating havoc.

but, remember: the tories have never won a majority at either level with less than 40% of the vote, and there's not any good reason to think they will this time, either.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-andrea-horwath-kathleen-wynne-doug-ford/